Economic Cycles, Debt and Demographics


Home About Macro Risks Contact Demographic Simulations


This is the website for book “Economic Cycles, Debt and Demographics” by Carlos Alegria.

The first edition was published in July 2017 and due to recent world developments, I had numerous requests for an updated version of the book. Grudgingly, I set out to update the previous edition and in the process refined each section of the book and included extra material that I thought was relevant today and will be of high importance in the years to come. The improvements in the second edition are:

If you need to stay in touch for updates to the site please subscribe using the contact form.

If you want to buy the book:



Since the 2008 crisis it seems the world has changed. The economic environment of today is very different from the one that existed just one generation ago. The baby boomers that arrived like a great wave after the Second World War drove the economy, and social change with it, but we are now living in the wake of the demographic bust that followed. Ageing populations and high debt levels are powerful forces that are slowing growth in developed countries. In the decades to come, these same forces will be acting on emerging markets too.

From the fundamentals of how demographic cycles have been propagated down the ages, to the impact on economic cycles and debt, and consequently the social, political and economic fates of nations, this book is full of practical insights to help you navigate the world of slow economic growth and population decline, as an individual, investor or policy-maker.

Meticulously researched, and backed by decades of real-world data, this book will explain: